WASHINGTON, Jan. 28, 2008 (Thomson Financial delivered by Newstex) -- A US president's last State of the Union speech is traditionally where he lays out what he hopes history will see as his legacy. There is little doubt George W Bush would like to claim tonight that the economy is stronger and more prosperous because of his policies, but that would be a tough sell.
Such a claim would simply lack credibility when the country is on the verge of a recession or--according to some economists and most of the public--already in one. But Bush can hardly ignore the economy either.
'He will confidently boast that he will sign into law a bipartisan agreement to legislate an economic stimulus package to counteract the effects from an economy rapidly headed downhill. The fiscal package will be the highlight of his message since it is the most prominent piece of legislation that (can be) enacted quickly and without partisan bickering,' said Brian Fabbri of BNP Paribas. (OOTC:BPRBF)
The stimulus package has to be Bush's focus because the economy has risen to the top of the pubic's worry list and because he's got to promote it heavily if it's to have any prospect of getting through Congress quickly. That's what makes his position so paradoxical.
'He's likely to focus a lot on the near-term challenges and not much on his legacy. He'll be saying his economic legacy is a strong one but on the other hand the economy is so weak we need to adopt a stimulus package,' said Kevin Hassett of the American Enterprise Institute (AEI)(and an economic adviser to Republican presidential candidate Senator John McCain of Arizona).
White House Press Secretary Dana Perino got a direct question on the Bush economic legacy this morning: 'Is the country better off now than it was seven years ago?'
She claimed that Bush wasn't even thinking about his legacy tonight. 'The president doesn't spend a lot of time thinking about that,' she said. 'Look, the president thinks his legacy will shake itself out when people look at the record and history will tell.'
At around 150 bln usd, the stimulus package is big, just over 1 pct of GDP. The intention is for it to be implemented quickly with the first checks going out to taxpayers by May.
'The personal tax rebates alone will be worth almost 100 bln usd, and it is hard to imagine throwing that kind of money at the economy and seeing no result,' according to Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics.
The academic research on tax rebates in 2001 and 2003 showed that between one third and two thirds of the rebates were spent quickly. Now, 'the increased financial pressures on households mean that a greater proportion of the rebates this year will be saved or used to pay down debt,' said Shepherdson.
Mr. Bush has always portrayed himself as anti-deficit and there are some anti-spending initiatives to be included in the State of the Union speech. The cost of the stimulus package is likely to be left out. The Congressional Budget Office has said it's likely to add 75 bln usd to the Fiscal Year 2008 deficit and the same amount in FY 2009.
Merrill Lynch's (NYSE:MER) (OOTC:MERIZ) David Rosenberg, who believes the US is already in recession doesn't see much impact from the stimulus, even combined with Fed rate cuts. 'At the margin, the fact that we are seeing a more aggressive policy response is a positive, but in the overall scheme of things, it doesn't change the recession outlook, though it all may serve to dull the pain,' he said.
Leaving the impression that at least he's trying to dull economic the pain may be the best President Bush can hope for tonight.
wash/ajb
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Newstex ID: AFX-0013-22580856
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http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/newstex/AFX-0013-22580856.htm
Monday, January 28, 2008
Democrats standing up to Bush on warrantless wiretap bill
Filed by Nick Juliano
In the shadow of the president's final State of the Union address, Senate Democrats are preparing for an 11th-hour showdown with George W. Bush and his Republican allies in Congress over controversial surveillance legislation.
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The Senate will vote Monday at 4:30 p.m. on a GOP proposal that would cement an expansion of the president's authority to spy on Americans and free from legal jeopardy any telephone or Internet service provider who helped the country's intelligence agencies to collect vast amount of data on US citizens without a warrant. Anti-immunity activists say they expect the GOP gambit to fail.
Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) successfully led an effort to block immunity in December, just before Congress' holiday recess, and the Senate returned to the issue last week, considering dual proposals from the Intelligence and Judiciary committees. Last Thursday, Republicans and a dozen Democrats blocked Judiciary's proposal to update FISA without immunity, but the GOP then refused an agreement that would have required a mere 51-vote majority to pass further amendments.
Republicans filed for an immediate cloture vote on the Intelligence bill, which would preclude any amendments from being made. This angered Democrats, and Reid, who encouraged his caucus to support a filibuster of the bill. Reid also filed a 30-day extension of the Protect America Act, which expires Feb. 1.
Although the Judiciary proposal failed on a 60-34 vote, the Republicans' attempt to preclude any further amendments is expected to cost them support from some of the Democrats who joined them in that effort. Democratic presidential candidates Sens. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) and Barack Obama (D-IL) also have said they will vote against cloture.
Assuming cloture fails, Reid is expected to move forward with a vote on a one-month extension to give the Senate more time to work out its differences. President Bush has promised to veto such a bill.
After they were cowed last August into passing a temporary expansion of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act that critics said did too much to concentrate power in the hands of the executive, Congressional Democrats have decided to hit back against the president. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) turned the tables on Bush over the weekend, saying that blame for any gaps in the ability to collect intelligence resides at the White House.
The Senate's debate over a long-term FISA expansion has come in fits and starts over the last few months, since passage of the Protect America Act. Several times the issue was scuttled after left-leaning Senators moved to block a proposal that would grant legal immunity to telecommunications companies that facilitated Bush's warrantless wiretapping program. Those companies, such as AT&T and Verizon, are plaintiffs in 40 or so lawsuits nationwide alleging they violated customers' privacy; administration critics say the lawsuits are the only means for oversight of the wiretapping scheme in the face of an ultra-secretive administration.
Bush has promised to veto any temporary expansion of the PAA, and the administration hopes to use the pending deadline to force Congress into giving into telecom immunity. The House passed an immunity-free update months ago, and Reid has indicated he also will not budge, accusing Bush of "simply posturing" before his final State of the Union, according to the Politico.
"There will be no terrorism intelligence collection gap," Reid said. "But if there is any problem, the blame will clearly and unequivocally fall where it belongs: on President Bush and his allies in Congress."
DEVELOPING...
from
http://rawstory.com//printstory.php?story=9031
In the shadow of the president's final State of the Union address, Senate Democrats are preparing for an 11th-hour showdown with George W. Bush and his Republican allies in Congress over controversial surveillance legislation.
Advertisement
The Senate will vote Monday at 4:30 p.m. on a GOP proposal that would cement an expansion of the president's authority to spy on Americans and free from legal jeopardy any telephone or Internet service provider who helped the country's intelligence agencies to collect vast amount of data on US citizens without a warrant. Anti-immunity activists say they expect the GOP gambit to fail.
Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) successfully led an effort to block immunity in December, just before Congress' holiday recess, and the Senate returned to the issue last week, considering dual proposals from the Intelligence and Judiciary committees. Last Thursday, Republicans and a dozen Democrats blocked Judiciary's proposal to update FISA without immunity, but the GOP then refused an agreement that would have required a mere 51-vote majority to pass further amendments.
Republicans filed for an immediate cloture vote on the Intelligence bill, which would preclude any amendments from being made. This angered Democrats, and Reid, who encouraged his caucus to support a filibuster of the bill. Reid also filed a 30-day extension of the Protect America Act, which expires Feb. 1.
Although the Judiciary proposal failed on a 60-34 vote, the Republicans' attempt to preclude any further amendments is expected to cost them support from some of the Democrats who joined them in that effort. Democratic presidential candidates Sens. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) and Barack Obama (D-IL) also have said they will vote against cloture.
Assuming cloture fails, Reid is expected to move forward with a vote on a one-month extension to give the Senate more time to work out its differences. President Bush has promised to veto such a bill.
After they were cowed last August into passing a temporary expansion of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act that critics said did too much to concentrate power in the hands of the executive, Congressional Democrats have decided to hit back against the president. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) turned the tables on Bush over the weekend, saying that blame for any gaps in the ability to collect intelligence resides at the White House.
The Senate's debate over a long-term FISA expansion has come in fits and starts over the last few months, since passage of the Protect America Act. Several times the issue was scuttled after left-leaning Senators moved to block a proposal that would grant legal immunity to telecommunications companies that facilitated Bush's warrantless wiretapping program. Those companies, such as AT&T and Verizon, are plaintiffs in 40 or so lawsuits nationwide alleging they violated customers' privacy; administration critics say the lawsuits are the only means for oversight of the wiretapping scheme in the face of an ultra-secretive administration.
Bush has promised to veto any temporary expansion of the PAA, and the administration hopes to use the pending deadline to force Congress into giving into telecom immunity. The House passed an immunity-free update months ago, and Reid has indicated he also will not budge, accusing Bush of "simply posturing" before his final State of the Union, according to the Politico.
"There will be no terrorism intelligence collection gap," Reid said. "But if there is any problem, the blame will clearly and unequivocally fall where it belongs: on President Bush and his allies in Congress."
DEVELOPING...
from
http://rawstory.com//printstory.php?story=9031
Bush trying to foment discord in Mideast: IRGC commander
Tehran Times Political Desk
TEHRAN - Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Commander Mohammad-Ali Jafari said here on Sunday that U.S. President George W. Bush traveled to the Middle East to invite Arab countries to join the West’s efforts to isolate Iran and to foment discord between the Islamic Republic and its Arab neighbors.
On his recent visit to Persian Gulf countries, Bush branded Iran the leading state sponsor of terror, and said “all options” against Tehran remain on the table.
Bush became concerned about the warming relations between Iran and its southern neighbors, which was a result of President Mahmud Ahmadinejad’s “successful visits to the Persian Gulf states”, and thus he headed to the region to continue the U.S. policy of “spreading lies, which we have witnessed over the past three decades,” Jafari told Al-Jazeera television on Saturday.
He rejected the idea that the U.S. president was seeking to prepare the ground for a military strike against the Islamic Republic.
The reports of the UN nuclear watchdog and U.S. intelligence agencies, confirming the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear activities, have removed all pretexts for the West to attack Iran, he said.
Bush launched his Middle East tour to divert attention from the United States’ failure in its efforts to gain the international community’s support for its baseless accusations about Iran’s civilian nuclear program, he opined.
Jafari said Iran does not regard Bush’s “meaningless remarks” about Iran’s role in the region as a threat to its security and reiterated that the U.S. president is seeking to sow discord between Iran and Muslim Arab countries.
However, the Iranian military will retaliate against U.S. military bases in the Persian Gulf if they are used for an attack on Iran, AP quoted the IRGC commander as saying.
“Of course, if the U.S. attacks Iran, Iran’s first response will be defense with all its might and this might is far greater than (Iran’s) strength at the time of the war against Saddam Hussein’s regime (the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war).”
However, he assured Persian Gulf littoral countries, some of which host U.S. military bases, that only the U.S. forces would come under counterattack and that Iran “would never endanger regional countries.”
“We realize that there is concern among Muslim countries that host U.S. military bases,” Jafari said.
“However, if the U.S. launches a war against us, and if it uses these bases to attack Iran with missiles, then, through the strength and precision of our own missiles, we are capable of targeting only the U.S. military forces that attack us,” he told Al-Jazeera.
The U.S. military has several bases in Arab countries including Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Yemen.
Despite the U.S. military’s supremacy in air power and advanced electronic equipment, Iran can counter any attack just like the Hezbollah forces that achieved victory in the 33-day war against the Zionist regime, Jafari said.
Hezbollah soldiers did not have high-tech weapons but managed to defeat the region’s most advanced and best-equipped military, he added.
He said the U.S. military bases in neighboring countries are not a “source of power” but a “source of vulnerability” for the U.S. troops.
“They believe they have encircled Iran, but they are definitely aware that they are within range of our long-range guns and medium-range missiles.”
Jafari ruled out the possibility of a ground attack against Iran, saying, “I do not think U.S. troops or even its politicians are crazy enough to try that.”
He said the world’s secular powers feel threatened by Iran’s growing “spiritual, political, and revolutionary power” which has created unity and Islamic vigilance in the country and enjoys the support of many Muslims around the world.
Asked how Iran would respond to an attack by the Zionist regime, Jafari said, “Our information about the regime occupying Qods tells us that they would not make such a great and historic mistake.”
However, he said the U.S. and Israel are both pursuing the same objectives and if they are foolish enough to attack Iran, “we will be free to make a decision and we will do what we decide to do, and that is what Israel is worried about.
TEHRAN - Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Commander Mohammad-Ali Jafari said here on Sunday that U.S. President George W. Bush traveled to the Middle East to invite Arab countries to join the West’s efforts to isolate Iran and to foment discord between the Islamic Republic and its Arab neighbors.
On his recent visit to Persian Gulf countries, Bush branded Iran the leading state sponsor of terror, and said “all options” against Tehran remain on the table.
Bush became concerned about the warming relations between Iran and its southern neighbors, which was a result of President Mahmud Ahmadinejad’s “successful visits to the Persian Gulf states”, and thus he headed to the region to continue the U.S. policy of “spreading lies, which we have witnessed over the past three decades,” Jafari told Al-Jazeera television on Saturday.
He rejected the idea that the U.S. president was seeking to prepare the ground for a military strike against the Islamic Republic.
The reports of the UN nuclear watchdog and U.S. intelligence agencies, confirming the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear activities, have removed all pretexts for the West to attack Iran, he said.
Bush launched his Middle East tour to divert attention from the United States’ failure in its efforts to gain the international community’s support for its baseless accusations about Iran’s civilian nuclear program, he opined.
Jafari said Iran does not regard Bush’s “meaningless remarks” about Iran’s role in the region as a threat to its security and reiterated that the U.S. president is seeking to sow discord between Iran and Muslim Arab countries.
However, the Iranian military will retaliate against U.S. military bases in the Persian Gulf if they are used for an attack on Iran, AP quoted the IRGC commander as saying.
“Of course, if the U.S. attacks Iran, Iran’s first response will be defense with all its might and this might is far greater than (Iran’s) strength at the time of the war against Saddam Hussein’s regime (the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war).”
However, he assured Persian Gulf littoral countries, some of which host U.S. military bases, that only the U.S. forces would come under counterattack and that Iran “would never endanger regional countries.”
“We realize that there is concern among Muslim countries that host U.S. military bases,” Jafari said.
“However, if the U.S. launches a war against us, and if it uses these bases to attack Iran with missiles, then, through the strength and precision of our own missiles, we are capable of targeting only the U.S. military forces that attack us,” he told Al-Jazeera.
The U.S. military has several bases in Arab countries including Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Yemen.
Despite the U.S. military’s supremacy in air power and advanced electronic equipment, Iran can counter any attack just like the Hezbollah forces that achieved victory in the 33-day war against the Zionist regime, Jafari said.
Hezbollah soldiers did not have high-tech weapons but managed to defeat the region’s most advanced and best-equipped military, he added.
He said the U.S. military bases in neighboring countries are not a “source of power” but a “source of vulnerability” for the U.S. troops.
“They believe they have encircled Iran, but they are definitely aware that they are within range of our long-range guns and medium-range missiles.”
Jafari ruled out the possibility of a ground attack against Iran, saying, “I do not think U.S. troops or even its politicians are crazy enough to try that.”
He said the world’s secular powers feel threatened by Iran’s growing “spiritual, political, and revolutionary power” which has created unity and Islamic vigilance in the country and enjoys the support of many Muslims around the world.
Asked how Iran would respond to an attack by the Zionist regime, Jafari said, “Our information about the regime occupying Qods tells us that they would not make such a great and historic mistake.”
However, he said the U.S. and Israel are both pursuing the same objectives and if they are foolish enough to attack Iran, “we will be free to make a decision and we will do what we decide to do, and that is what Israel is worried about.
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